Four Tests for Any New Technology or Trend

Module 2, Lesson 6. Works on things you are sceptical about and things you are excited about.

1. The problem test. What actual problem does this solve, for whom, and how were they solving it before?
2. The boring-adoption test. Is anyone using it for unglamorous work? Nobody adopts a technology for tedious tasks unless it genuinely works.
3. The direction-of-money test. Is revenue coming from users who benefit, or from investors expecting value later?
4. The five-year-old-idea test. What was the earlier attempt, what blocked it, and has that blocker actually gone?

Building for a range instead of predicting

Own your primitives · keep a portfolio of skills, not one · separate the value from its current carrier · keep slack · make small bets

Three scenarios

Continuation · Disruption · Acceleration. For each: what would I need, what would I regret not starting, what stays valuable regardless?
Whatever appears in all three is a no-regret move. Start those this month.